陈宁;谢旺;

• 1:武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

近年来，易流态化货物海上运输事故频发，造成了较大的货物损失及人员伤亡。为了降低该类货物海运过程中风险因素的模糊性及不确定性对风险评估效果的影响，提出了一种基于组合赋权-DS证据理论的风险评估方法。首先识别相关风险因子，构建关于易流态化货物海运事故的层次化评价指标体系，通过层次分析法和熵权法分别计算各指标因素的主观权重和客观权重，随后引入距离函数的概念进行组合赋权；运用模糊数学理论确定安全隶属度函数，并通过可信度三角模型和修正系数得到基本信任分配函数；运用证据融合理论进行多证据合成，评估整个系统的风险等级。实例分析表明，基于组合赋权-DS证据理论的风险评估模型能够有效评估易流态化货物的海运风险，降低了评估结果的不确定度。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;易流态化货物;组合赋权;DS证据理论;风险评估

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ2020012)

作者(Authors): 陈宁;谢旺;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1488

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