冯运卿;李雪梅;李学伟;

• 1:北京交通大学经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

在分析影响我国铁路运行安全相关因素的基础上,分别从预测和结果两个角度构建了铁路安全综合评价指标体系。运用熵权法分别计算了基于预测和基于结果的铁路安全评价指标的权重。在基于预测的铁路安全指标方面,人为因素是造成铁路行车事故的主要方面。在基于结果的铁路安全指标方面,"铁路事故损失"因素对铁路安全影响最大。以基于结果的铁路安全评价指标权重为基础,结合灰色关联分析法计算了1985—2007年铁路安全的灰色关联度,并绘制了我国铁路安全度变化曲线,对我国铁路安全整体发展趋势进行了分析。结果表明,我国铁路安全状况分为3个阶段:第一阶段为1985—1990年,由于当时我国铁路技术装备还不够发达,铁路安全整体水平较低,并且有下降的趋势;第二阶段为1991—2000年,我国铁路整体安全度获得了较大提高,虽然部分年份安全度出现波动,但安全度整体趋势获得了很大提升;第三阶段为2001—2007年,2001年以来,我国铁路安全度一直高于0.8,处于较高水平,并进入了平稳期。总的来说,我国铁路整体安全水平获得了很大程度提高,铁路整体安全度已经达到较高水平。

关键词(KeyWords)： 交通运输安全工程;熵权法;灰色关联分析;铁路安全评价

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 冯运卿;李雪梅;李学伟;

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