肖国清;黄仁和;陈春燕;

• 1:西南石油大学化学化工学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为了提高建筑火灾风险评估结果的准确性，降低建筑物火灾的危害性和事故损失程度，通过分析火灾事故原因，对FRAME模型中的评价指标体系进行改进和优化，探讨建筑消防安全管理水平对建筑物火灾风险、人员风险、建筑内活动风险的影响，并利用改进的FRAME模型评估堪培拉市某大楼的火灾风险。结果表明，采用N-K模型对指标体系中的风险因素进行耦合计算后，一级指标体系中四因素耦合风险为0.050 7,大于其他耦合情况，验证了一级指标体系中增加建筑消防安全管理水平的准确性。堪培拉市该大楼的建筑物火灾风险由原来的2.11降低为1.12,人员风险由原来的6.56降低为4.24,建筑物内活动风险由原来的1.42降低为0.79,建筑物安全管理水平的增加会降低人员风险等级和建筑物内活动风险等级。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;建筑火灾风险;N-K模型;FRAME;耦合分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51874255)

作者(Authors): 肖国清;黄仁和;陈春燕;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.0104

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 霍然，胡源，李元洲.建筑火灾安全工程导论[M].合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社，2009.HUO R,HU S,LI Y Z.Introduction to building fire safety engineering[M].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China Press,2009.
• [2] 张立宁.高层建筑火灾风险评价及智能报警系统研究[D].北京：北京理工大学，2015.ZHANG L N.High rise building fire evaluation and intelligent alarm system research[D].Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology,2015.
• [3] 戴世伟，刘鑫鑫，万飞.软岩隧道大变形事故致灾因素耦合分析[J].中国安全科学学报，2021,31(8):119-124.DAI S W,LIU X X,WAN F.Coupling analysis on disaster-inducing factors for large deformation accidents in soft rock tunnels[J].China Safety Science Journal,2021,31(8):119-124.
• [4] 赵华亮，孙晓乾.建筑整体火灾风险分析方法FRAME介绍[J].消防科学与技术，2014,33(4):441-444.ZHAO H L,SUN X Q.Introduction to a total fire risk analysis method for buildings:FRAME[J].Fire Science and Technology,2014,33(4):441-444.
• [5] WATTS J M,KAPLAN M E.Fire risk index for historic buildings[J].Fire Technology,2001,37:167-180.
• [6] 陈娟娟，方正，谢涛，等.典型建筑火灾风险评估体系及其软件开发[J].中国安全科学学报，2015,25(1):116-121.CHEN J J,FANG Z,XIE T,et al.Fire risk assessment for typical buildings and software development[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(1):116-121.
• [7] HASOFER A M.Modern sensitivity analysis of the CESARE-Risk computer fire model[J].Fire Safety Journal,2009,44(3):330-338.
• [8] MARIANOV V,REVELLE C.The capacitated standard response fire protection siting problem:deterministic and probabilistic models[J].Annals of Operations Research,1992,40(1):303-332.
• [9] 罗帆，刘堂卿.基于N-K模型的空中交通安全耦合风险分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2011,33(2):267-270,279.LUO F,LIU T Q.Analysis of coupled risk of air traffic safety based on N-K model[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Information and Management Engineering),2011,33(2):267-270,279.
• [10] 乔万冠，李新春，刘全龙.N-K模型下煤矿重大瓦斯事故风险耦合致因分析[J].科技管理研究，2017,37(2):196-200.QIAO W G,LI X C,LIU Q L.Analysis of risk coupling in the major coal mine gas accident underN-K model[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2017,37(2):196-200.
• [11] 付邦稳，蒋宏业，徐涛龙，等.基于N-K模型的城市燃气管道失效可能性因素耦合分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术，2018,14(2):145-149.FU B W,JIANG H Y,XU T L,et al.Coupling analysis on failure possibility factors of urban gas pipeline based on N-K model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2018,14(2):145-149.
• [12] 潘琦睿.高校老旧建筑火灾风险评估研究[D].广州：华南理工大学，2017.PAN Q R.Study on fire risk assessment of old buildings in universities[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2017.
• [13] 董铭鑫，赵东风，贾进章.基于模糊综合评价-集值统计法的大型商场外因火灾风险性分析[J].安全与环境学报，2019,19(1):29-34.DONG M X,ZHAO D F,JIA J Z.Analysis of the large storing house fire risk based on the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method and set value statistics[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2019,19(1):29-34.
• [14] 贾进章，陈怡诺.基于网络层次分析-灰色聚类法的高层建筑火灾风险分析[J].安全与环境学报，2020,20(4):1228-1235.JIA J Z,CHEN Y N.Fire risk assessment of the high-rise buildings based on the network analysis-gray clustering method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2020,20(4):1228-1235.
• [15] 李升友.安全系统思想及其理论核心研究[J].中国安全科学学报，2016,26(1):28-33.LI S Y.Research on core theories of safety system thoughts[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(1):28-33.
• [16] 宋妍蕾.基于BIM技术的建筑物运维期火灾风险评价方法研究[D].广州：广东工业大学，2018.SONG Y L.Study on fire risk assessment method for building operation and maintenance based on BIM technology[D].Guangzhou:Guangdong University of Technology,2018.
• [17] 高玄，徐坚，陈嘉慧.基于模糊层次综合法在高层建筑火灾风险评估中的应用[J].价值工程，2018,37(2):168-170.GAO X,XU J,CHEN J H.Application offuzzy AHP in fire risk assessment of high-rise building[J].Value Engineering,2018,37(2):168-170.
• [18] 陈昕，陈大伟.基于AHP-FCE方法的高层住宅建筑火灾风险评估研究[J].安全，2020,41(8):25-30.CHEN X,CHEN D W.Study onfire risk assessment method of hgh-rise residential buildings based on AHP-FCE[J].Safety & Security,2020,41(8):25-30.
• [19] 叶成豪，刘月婵，孙超，等.考虑火灾产物影响条件下的人员疏散仿真研究[J].中国安全科学学报，2020,30(6):142-151.YE C H,LIU Y C,SUN C,et al.Simulation study on personnel evacuation considering impacts of fire products[J].China Safety Science Journal,2020,30(6):142-151.