刘杰;傅钰;马倩;张悦;邓禾苗;

• 1:昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为解决烟(粉)尘排放量预测模型中原始数据存在干扰因素且不稳定的问题，提出了一种结合弱化缓冲算子优化的灰色FGM预测模型，对废气中烟(粉)尘排放量的变化进行预测和拟合。相对于单一的灰色FGM预测模型，优化的预测模型引入了弱化缓冲算子。基于2012—2017年全国废气中烟(粉)尘的年排放量数据，运用3种弱化缓冲算子对原始序列进行处理，对比GAWBO和AWBO以及WAWBO 3种弱化缓冲算子处理后得到的预测结果，并用原始数据对预测结果进行检验分析，结果表明运用WAWBO算法优化的FGM模型预测的数据精度最高，相对误差只有2.767%,预测结果与实际烟(粉)尘排放情况更符。研究表明，使用弱化算子优化的FGM模型拟合程度更高，且具有较高的预测精度，扩宽了该预测模型的应用范围。

关键词(KeyWords)： 环境工程学;烟粉尘排放量;弱化缓冲算子;灰色预测模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 云南省重点研发计划项目(202003AC100002);; 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2018JS034)

作者(Authors): 刘杰;傅钰;马倩;张悦;邓禾苗;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.0720

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