徐政华;曹延明;

• 1:吉林省水利水电勘测设计研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

为了对长春市水资源承载力进行评价，涵盖水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统和生态环境系统4个方面，选取单位面积水资源量、人口密度、万元工业增加值用水量和生态环境用水率等共14个指标的区域水资源承载力评价指标体系；引用改进熵权的TOPSIS模型评价方法，介入信息熵计算各评价指标的权重，利用欧式距离的最优解法对水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明：从各市县来看，水资源承载力由高到低依次为德惠市、榆树市、长春市区、双阳区、九台区，水资源承载力处于III“中等”水平；农安县排在最后，水资源承载力处于II“较弱水平”。单位面积水资源量、地表水资源占比、人均水资源占有量和城镇化率指标为影响长春市水资源承载力的有利因子，人均水资源利用量、单位面积灌溉用水量等其余10个指标则为不利因子。总体来看，该区域具有相对的开发利用潜力，在一定区域和时间里，能够为整个长春市经济社会的发展提供水资源保障，但未来发展情况不容乐观，也要给予必要关注和采取有效措施予以应对。评价结果与各市(区)县水资源实际情况相吻合，该评价模型能够综合考虑影响因素，有效降低了评价中主观因素的影响，为水资源承载力评价提供理论依据和可行性参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 环境学;水资源承载力;TOPSIS模型;评价;长春市

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 徐政华;曹延明;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.1448

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 左其亭，张修宇.气候变化下水资源动态承载力研究[J].水利学报，2015,46(4):387-395.ZUO Q T,ZHANG X Y.Research on dynamic bearing capacity of water resources under climate change[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(4):387-395.
• [2] 金菊良，董涛，郦建强，等.不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J].水科学进展，2018,29(1):31-39.JIN J L,DONG T,LI J Q,et al.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity under different carrying standards[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(1):31-39.
• [3] 龙腾锐，姜文超，何强.水资源承载力内涵的新认识[J].水利学报，2004(1):38-45.LONG T R,JIANG W C,HE Q.New understanding of the connotation of water resources carrying capacity [J].Journal of Water Resources,2004(1):38-45.
• [4] 曾浩，张中旺，孙小舟，等.湖北汉江流域水资源承载力研究[J].南水北调与水利科技，2013,11(4):22-25,30.ZENG H,ZHANG Z W,SUN X Z,et al.Research on water resources carrying capacity of Hanjiang River basin in Hubei[J].South-to-North Water Transfer and Water Conservancy Science and Technology,2013,11(4):22-25,30.
• [5] 刘川.万州区水资源承载力综合评价研究[D].重庆：重庆交通大学，2016.LIU C.Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Wanzhou District[D].Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University,2016.
• [6] 卜楠楠，唐德善，尹笋.基于AHP法的浙江省水资源承载力模糊综合评价[J].水电能源科学，2012,30(3):42-44,41.BU N N,TANG D S,YIN S.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of Zhejiang Province water resources carrying capacity based on AHP method[J].Hydropower and Energy Science,2012,30(3):42-44,41.
• [7] 朱玲燕，苏维词.基于熵权法及灰色关联模型的水资源承载力研究[J].水资源与水工程学报，2014,25(5):233-236.ZHU L Y,SU W C.Research on water resources carrying capacity based on entropy weight method and grey correlation model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2014,25(5):233-236.
• [8] 佟长福，史海滨，李和平，等.基于灰色关联分析的鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力评价[J].节水灌溉，2009(11):43-45,49.TONG C F,SHI H B,LI H P,et al.Evaluation of Ordos City water resources carrying capacity based on grey correlation analysis[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2009(11):43-45,49.
• [9] 田霞.基于支持向量机的吉林省地下水承载力评价[J].水力发电，2018,44(5):22-26.TIAN X.Evaluation of groundwater carrying capacity in Jilin Province based on support vector machine[J].Hydropower,2018,44(5):22-26.
• [10] 孟丽红，陈亚宁，徐祥明.基于可变模糊评价法的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究[J].水土保持通报，2012,32(2):162-167.MENG L H,CHEN Y N,XU X M.Research on water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River basin based on variable fuzzy evaluation method[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(2):162-167.
• [11] 曹永强，朱明明，张亮亮.基于可变模糊评价法的大连市水资源承载力分析[J].水利水运工程学报，2016(4):40-46.CAN Y Q,ZHU M M,ZHANG L L.Analysis of Dalian City water resources carrying capacity based on variable fuzzy evaluation method[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016(4):40-46.
• [12] HWANG C L,YOON K S.Multiple attribute decision making[M].Berlin:Springverlag,1981:1-50.
• [13] 王江，李靖，魏红义，等.基于TOPSIS法的区域水资源承载力预测评价——以陕西省关中地区为例[J].水土保持研究，2008(3):161-163.WANG J,LI J,WEI H Y,et al.Prediction and evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on TOPSIS method—taking Guanzhong Area of Shaanxi Province as an example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008(3):161-163.
• [14] 周彦红，尹华，刘玉申，等.长春市水资源开发利用存在的问题及其节水潜力分析[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2015,47(2):153-157.ZHOU Y H,YIN H,LIU Y S,et al.Problems in water resources development and utilization in Changchun City and analysis of their water-saving potential[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University (Natural Science Edition),2015,47(2):153-157.
• [15] 苏伟，刘景双.长春市水资源承载力变动及可持续利用对策[J].干旱区研究，2007,24(4):441- 445.SU W,LIU J S.Changchun City water resources carrying capacity changes and sustainable utilization strategies[J].Arid Area Research,2007,24(4):441- 445.
• [16] 娄洋，李宣谕，佟剑杰 ,等.基于支持向量机的水资源承载能力研究[J].水利规划与设计，2018(9):40- 44.LOU Y,LI X Y,TONG J J,et al.Research on water resources carrying capacity based on support vector machine[J].Water Resources Planning and Design,2018(9):40- 44.
• [17] 方崇.基于信息熵的TOPSIS模型在科研项目立项评价中的应用[J].科技管理研究，2010,30(20):211-213,195.FANG C.The application of TOPSIS model based on information entropy in the evaluation of scientific research project approval[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2010,30(20):211-213,195.
• [18] 姜秋香，付强，王子龙.三江平原水资源承载力评价及区域差异[J].农业工程学报，2011,27(9):184-190.JIANG Q X,FU Q,WANG Z L.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Sanjiang Plain and regional differences[J].Journal of Agricultural Engineering,2011,27(9):184-190.
• [19] 项琼.基于组合权重TOPSIS模型的区域水资源承载力综合评价[J].西北水电，2015(4):6-10,17.XIANG Q.Comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on combined weight TOPSIS model[J].Northwest Hydropower,2015(4):6-10,17.
• [20] 屈小娥.陕西省水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境，2017,31(2):91-97.QU X E.Research on comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Shaanxi Province[J].Arid Area Resources and Environment,2017,31(2):91-97.
• [21] 曹珊珊.内蒙古自治区水资源承载力评价与发展对策研究[D].大连：辽宁师范大学，2015.CAO S S.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and development countermeasures in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[D].Dalian:Liaoning Normal University,2015.