孙东亮;李子杰;

• 1:华东理工大学资源与环境工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为了分析典型自然灾害对常压储罐的影响，针对包括雷击、洪水的气象灾害及地震灾害进行研究。分别分析这两类自然灾害所引起的事故类型及其风险，建立事件树。结合相应的易损性模型及构建的事件树建立了储罐的失效概率模型，然后计算个人风险和社会风险来刻画灾害的后果，构建完整的针对典型自然灾害引发常压储罐破坏的定量风险评估模型。最后通过案例计算验证了该定量风险评估模型的可行性和实用性。结果表明：在雷击作用下，外浮顶储罐比固定顶储罐更易失效；高液面的常压储罐在洪水作用下失效概率较小；雷击外浮顶原油储罐和地震作用固定顶柴油储罐的个人风险均达到了一级和二级的风险标准，其社会风险也都有一部分处于“不可容许区”。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;自然灾害;常压储罐;失效概率;风险分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 上海市自然科学基金项目(16ZR1408500)

作者(Authors): 孙东亮;李子杰;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1734

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