段在鹏;艾仁华;

• 1:福州大学环境与安全工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

探究了新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在我国传播中的空间特性，并深入分析了各类因素对其传播的影响。首先基于全国COVID-19累计确诊数据计算Moran指数，验证了疫情传播具有空间集聚性。通过LISA图确定集聚区域：四川为HL,湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、重庆和河南为HH,新疆和青海为LL。之后充分考虑地缘因素，在普通最小二乘(OLS)、空间滞后(SLM)和空间误差(SEM)3个模型中，优选出空间误差回归模型分析本次疫情传播的影响因素。回归结果显示，在人口、经济、医疗和迁徙4大方面中，共8个因素在95%置信区间显著影响了确诊人数。其中正影响因素有4个，负影响因素有4个。根据SEM模型结果，为了尽快控制疫情传播，应大力推行医疗保险，更加严格地对出入境货物进行检验检疫。同时不鼓励居民在疫情期间进行消费，不鼓励普通本专科学生开学，进一步减少人口的流动性。需着重注意：因为此次疫情情况较为特殊，“分地区普通本专科学生情况”和“医疗卫生与计划生育支出”2个因素产生了与普遍研究结果相反的影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 公共安全;新型冠状病毒;空间自相关;空间集聚性;空间误差回归模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目(17CGL049)

作者(Authors): 段在鹏;艾仁华;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1524

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