LNG船舶锚泊安全距离定量计算建模Quantitative model for determining the safety distance of anchoring LNG carriers
文元桥;杜磊;王乐;肖长诗;周春辉;
摘要(Abstract)：
为保障液化天然气船舶(LNG船舶)锚泊安全,提出了一种基于船舶漂移运动和船舶碰撞风险的锚泊安全距离计算方法。首先,结合船舶运动数学模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟LNG船舶走锚漂移运动,得出走锚漂移方向概率密度函数,从而确定船舶走锚漂移横向、纵向距离;同时,结合船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG火灾模型,建立LNG船舶碰撞风险模型,确定满足碰撞概率和风险可接受的安全距离。最后,比较两种模型计算结果,并取其较大值作为LNG船舶锚泊安全距离。结果表明,LNG船锚泊安全距离不仅与环境水域的风、流情况有关,还与附近水域内船舶大小及速度有关。建议交通管理中需结合水域环境特征和水域船舶特点确定LNG船舶的锚泊安全距离。
关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;锚泊安全距离;液化天然气船舶;船舶运动;蒙特卡洛模拟;碰撞风险
基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(142212001)
作者(Authors): 文元桥;杜磊;王乐;肖长诗;周春辉;
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