彭志鹏;王永岗;

• 1:长安大学运输工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

出租车是我国城市公共交通的重要组成部分，但其事故率一直较高且缺乏深度研究。为有效研究出租车事故的致因机理，2015—2017年于西安、西宁、吉林、汕头四城市开展了随机问卷调查工作，收集了出租车驾驶员的基本信息、工作条件、健康状况、不良驾驶行为频率及过去两年内的事故经历，共获取2 391份有效问卷。对各变量进行描述性统计及皮尔森相关性检验后，考虑到事故经历包含财产损失事故数和受伤事故数两类，且均为有序变量，引入双变量有序Probit模型分析驾驶员基本信息、工作条件、健康状况、不良驾驶行为与两类事故发生的关系。结果表明：模型似然比检验结果显著(χ²=4.38,p=0.036),拒绝γ=0的假设，同时，误差项的相关系数ρ=0.145,表明财产损失事故与受伤事故间存在正相关关系，适合使用双变量模型进行建模；Wald检验的结果显著(χ2=4.38,p=0.036),拒绝γ=0的假设，同时，误差项的相关系数ρ=0.145,表明财产损失事故与受伤事故间存在正相关关系，适合使用双变量模型进行建模；Wald检验的结果显著(χ²=60.37,p<0.001)表明各致因因素对两类事故发生的影响不完全相同。驾驶员基本信息中，只有年龄与受伤事故呈显著负相关；工作条件中的4个变量与财产损失事故显著相关，但与受伤事故之间没有显著关联；驾驶员的健康状况和不良驾驶行为频率与两类事故的发生均呈显著正相关。出租车行业管理部门与出租车公司应协同合作，从改善工作条件、提升健康水平及减少不良驾驶行为频率3个角度出发，共同治理出租车事故，促进城市公共交通安全运营。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全社会工程;出租车事故;工作条件;健康状况;不良驾驶行为;预防对策

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL239)

作者(Authors): 彭志鹏;王永岗;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1757

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