汪金辉;周雨;张睿卿;庄磊;王雨;

• 1:上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院
• 2:上海海事大学安全与防护技术研究中心
• 3:中国船级社上海规范研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

为了识别气体运输船事故时空热点的分布特征，根据IHS Sea-web数据库中1990—2015年的全球气体运输船事故信息，统计了全球31个地理区域的气体运输船舶事故占比，在此基础上，采用核密度估计法分时段研究了事故的空间集中程度，得到了不同时段的热点分布特征。最后，通过新兴热点分析技术对事故热点的时空趋势进行了识别和分类，并与核密度估计的结果进行了对比。结果表明，不列颠群岛、北海、英吉利海峡和比斯开湾是事故的连续热点区域，爱琴海、马尔马拉海、伊斯坦布尔海峡和黑海西部水域是新热点区域，这些区域是近期气体运输船舶需要关注的重点事故区域。与传统热点分析法相比，新兴热点分析技术具有动态分析的优势，能同时在时间和空间维度上展现事故热点的演化过程，进行更精细化的船舶事故热点分析，适用于海事事故的热点研究。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全社会工程;GIS;气体运输船;船舶安全;核密度估计;新兴热点分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 汪金辉;周雨;张睿卿;庄磊;王雨;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1794

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