陈婷婷;施朝健;雷琴;

• 1:上海海事大学商船学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全管理工程;船舶搁浅概率;灰色模糊集;失效概率;信息熵;事件树;重要度分析

Abstract:

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基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 陈婷婷;施朝健;雷琴;

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