陈芳,郑红运,耿浩

• 1:中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院
• 2:中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为解决航班审批与空管单位运行能力动态匹配的问题,在对空管单位运行过程进行系统分析的基础上,基于"成长与投资不足"系统基模,建立了空管单位安全与发展的动力学模型。通过检验后,利用该模型分别对传统发展、高速发展和协调发展3种模式进行仿真。结果表明:在高速发展模式下,短期内空管单位管制保障架次增长较快,但空管单位运行能力增长不足,在某一时刻管制架次会急剧降低;而在传统发展模式下,管制保障架次增长缓慢,发展后劲不足;在协调发展模式下,通过提高安全投入水平,可以使空管单位运行能力增长,不安全状况保持较好水平,空管单位能够实现持续安全发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全管理工程;空管单位;安全与发展;系统动力学;系统基模;成长与投资不足

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 2014年民航科技项目计划专项

作者(Author): 陈芳,郑红运,耿浩

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