赵玲;易俊;王文和;

• 1:重庆大学资源及环境科学学院
• 2:重庆工程职业技术学院
• 3:重庆科技学院安全工程学院
• 4:中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

为研究城市燃气管网系统的本质安全性,提出了适用于城市燃气管网系统的脆弱性概念及脆弱性研究思路。根据城市燃气管网自身的行业特点与实地调研结果,从物理、结构和社会功能3个角度出发,建立了城市燃气管网脆弱性指标体系及等级标准。然后通过MATLAB R2010a的BP神经网络方法分别训练"敏感性程度"和"自身应对能力"网络模型,并构建脆弱性的函数模型。最后将城市燃气管网脆弱性等级划分为5个,用于评价城市燃气管网的脆弱性程度。训练得到的网络模型的均方差均小于0.05,结果表明,训练得到的网络模型效果良好,具有较强的泛化能力,且能够方便地用于评价未知样本,得到研究区域的燃气管网脆弱性等级值为0.91,研究区域的燃气管网脆弱性被评定为"不脆弱"。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;城市燃气管网;脆弱性;指标体系;BP神经网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 赵玲;易俊;王文和;

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