任振振;陈伟炯;李新;蒋少奇;张晓东;汪侃;

• 1:上海海事大学商船学院
• 2:天津海运职业学院航海技术系
• 3:上海海事大学海洋公共安全研究中心
• 4:上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

交通密集水域事故频发，为揭示其安全风险演化规律，明确风险监控重点，以长江口水域为例进行了交通安全风险演化脆弱性分析。基于该水域交通事故案例，运用事件链分析技术构建了安全风险演化网络并解析其拓扑特性；提出了安全风险演化脆弱性概念，运用MATLAB仿真技术进行了定量评价；提出了一种关键脆弱因素辨识方法，并以演化网络为例验证了其可行性。结果表明：长江口水域交通安全风险极易传播扩散，少数关键因素失控易导致交通事故；船员违规违章、船员不合格不适任、强潮汐急潮流等风险因素对该水域交通安全风险演化起到关键作用。研究表明，提出的辨识方法合理可行，可适用于其他交通密集水域，为海事部门精准防控关键风险提供理论依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;交通密集水域;安全风险;演化;脆弱性;复杂网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52001196)

作者(Authors): 任振振;陈伟炯;李新;蒋少奇;张晓东;汪侃;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.2101

参考文献(References)：

• [1] CHEN Y J,LIU Q,WAN C P.Risk causal analysis of traffic-intensive waters based on infectious disease dynamics[J].Journal of Marine Science and Engineering,2019,7(8):277-295.
• [2] MENG Q,WENG J X,LI S Y.Analysis with automatic identification system data of vessel traffic characteristics in the Singapore Strait[J].Transportation Research Record,2014,2426(1):33-43.
• [3] 刘清，张伟，韩丹丹，等.受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究[J].安全与环境学报，2017,17(1):37-41.LIU Q,ZHANG W,HAN D D,et al.A kind of measuring method for over-stock shipping risks in the restricted waters[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2017,17(1):37-41.
• [4] CHEN G H,LIU T Y,WAN C P,et al.Identification and analysis of vulnerability in traffic-intensive areas of water transportation systems[J].Journal of Marine Science and Engineering,2019,7(6):174-189.
• [5] JANSSEN M A,MICHAEL L S,KE W,et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
• [6] BERLE ?,ASBJ?RNSLETT B E,JAMES B R.Formal vulnerability assessment of a maritime transportation system[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,96(6):696-705.
• [7] BERLE ?,JAMES B,JR R,et al.Failure modes in the maritime transportation system:a functional approach to throughput vulnerability[J].Maritime Policy & Management,2011,38(6):605-632.
• [8] HSIEH C.Disaster risk assessment of ports based on the perspective of vulnerability[J].Natural Hazards,2014,74(2):851-864.
• [9] HSIEH C,TAI H,LEE Y.Port vulnerability assessment from the perspective of critical infrastructure interdependency[J].Maritime Policy & Management,2014,41(6):589-606.
• [10] CAO X H,LAM J S L.A fast reaction-based port vulnerability assessment against catastrophes:case of the Tianjin Port explosion[J].Transportation Research Part a:Policy and Practice,2019,128:11-33.
• [11] BATEMAN S.Maritime piracy in the Indo-Pacific region—ship vulnerability issues[J].Maritime Policy & Management,2010,37(7):737-751.
• [12] 陆梦.基于DEMATEL与ISM集成方法的水上交通系统脆性影响因素研究[J].上海海事大学学报，2014,35(1):18-22.LU M.Research on brittleness influencing factors of Marine traffic system based on DEMATEL and ISM integrated method[J].Journal of Shanghai Maritime University,2014,35(1):18-22.
• [13] 李晶，李宝德，王爽.基于突变理论的海上运输关键节点脆弱性度量[J].系统管理学报，2018,27(1):32-39.LI J,LI B D,WANG S.Vulnerability assessment of key maritime transport nodes based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Systems & Management,2018,27(1):32-39.
• [14] 肖琴，罗帆.基于复杂网络的两栖水上飞机起降安全风险演化[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学，2019,16(2):23-34.XIAO Q,LUO F.Safety risk evolution of amphibious seaplane during takeoff and landing based on complex network[J].Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2019,16(2):23-34.
• [15] 宋亮亮，邓勇亮，袁竞峰，等.基于复杂网络理论的地铁运行干扰源分析[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2017,47(5):1069-1073.SONG L L,DENG Y L,YUAN J F,et al.Analysis of metro operation disturbances based on complex network theory[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2017,47(5):1069-1073.
• [16] 陈伟炯.海事预控的安全科学新理论探讨[J].中国安全科学学报，1998,8(6):8-12.CHEN W J.Probe into the new theory of safety science on preventive control of marine accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,1998,8(6):8-12.
• [17] IGNAC-NOWICKA J.Chain of events application in workplaces in safety engineering[J].Multidisciplinary Aspects of Production Engineering,2019,2(1):118-125.
• [18] ERD?S P,RéNYI A.On the evolution of random graphs[J].Publication of the Mathematical Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Science,1960,5(1):17-60.
• [19] WATTS J D,STROGATZ H S.Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks[J].Nature,1998,393(6684):440-442.
• [20] BARABASIAND A,ALBERT R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J].Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.
• [21] 陈刘瑜，李希建，尹鑫，等.复杂网络理论下燃气管网节点重要性分析方法[J].中国安全科学学报，2018,28(9):74-80.CHEN L Y,LI X J,YIN X,et al.Complex network theory based analysis of importance of urban gas pipeline network nodes[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(9):74-80.
• [22] 周漩，张凤鸣，李克武，等.利用重要度评价矩阵确定复杂网络关键节点[J].物理学报，2012,61(5):1-7.ZHOU X,ZHANG F M,LI K W,et al.Finding vital node by node importance evaluation matrix in complex networks[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2012,61(5):1-7.
• [23] WU J,ZHANG D,WAN C,et al.Novel approach for comprehensive centrality assessment of ports along the maritime Silk Road[J].Transportation Research Record,2019,2673(9):461-470.