孙东亮;陈诗悦;

• 1:华东理工大学资源与环境工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为了解决氢气管道风险影响因素多、不确定性大及泄漏风险随时间变化的问题，提出了一种利用动态贝叶斯网络对氢气管道泄漏风险进行动态分析的方法。针对这些特点，利用Bow-Tie模型分析归纳了氢气管道泄漏的主要风险源和不同事故后果。引入时间维度，建立动态贝叶斯网络模型，对氢气管道泄漏进行动态风险分析。结合Leaky Noisy-or gate模型修正并计算条件概率。以化工园区氢气管道为例，验证该动态模型的可行性和实用性，得到管道泄漏概率的时序变化曲线和各事故后果的发生概率。结果表明，管道设备疲劳是导致氢气管道泄漏的最主要因素，设备发生严重疲劳的概率随时间延长而增加。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;动态贝叶斯网络;氢气管道;泄漏风险

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 上海市自然科学基金项目(16ZR1408500)

作者(Authors): 孙东亮;陈诗悦;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1762

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