张鹏;王璟;范潮海;唐胜雨;安兆暾;

• 1:西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院
• 2:中国石油天然气管道科学研究院有限公司
• 3:西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

天然气管道腐蚀因素具有模糊性和随机性，为有效保障管道安全运行，提高评价准确性，提出了一种基于二维云模型的风险评价方法。依据天然气管道历史失效数据建立天然气管道腐蚀风险评价指标体系，从土壤腐蚀、杂散电流、介质腐蚀性、其他腐蚀因素、防腐措施五方面展开研究。首先，运用改进层次分析法(AHP)及熵权法确定主客观权重，再经差异系数法调和得出组合权重。其次，根据等级量化区间得到各等级标准云，将指标的失效后果和失效概率作为二维云的两组基础变量，结合前面得到的权重矩阵，计算出各级风险云和综合云。最终，通过Matlab绘制云图及相近度计算确定风险等级。将该方法运用到新疆油田天然气管道腐蚀风险评价，得出其腐蚀风险为Ⅱ级，风险可接受，与工程实际一致，表明该风险评价方法具有一定的可行性，完善了天然气管道腐蚀风险评价方法。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;腐蚀;改进AHP;二维云模型;风险评价

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(50974105);; 中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD20)

作者(Authors): 张鹏;王璟;范潮海;唐胜雨;安兆暾;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2020.1622

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