北京市水资源供需平衡趋势预测及分析Forecasting and analysis of balance between water resources supply and actual demand in Beijing City
范英英;刘永;郭怀成;
摘要(Abstract)：
在研究北京市水资源供需现状的基础上,采用系统动力学方法构建了北京市水资源动态预测模型。对人口、产业结构和政策3个约束水资源供需平衡的核心因子进行分析,并将它们的变化趋势作为参数输入北京市水资源系统动力学模型中,通过动态仿真模拟,得到未来北京市水资源供需平衡变化的两种典型情景。结果显示,在保持现有政策和技术水平下,北京市水资源安全形势日益严峻,2010年水资源供求比为0.98;若加强人口、产业结构和政策等几项因子的约束,北京市水资源供需形式可逐渐缓和,2010年水资源供需比增至1.15。研究表明,约束因子对北京市水资源供需平衡有很大影响,加强人口、产业结构和政策的约束,实施相关的水资源政策,是提高水资源利用效率,缓解北京市水资源危机的重要保障。
关键词(KeyWords)： 环境科学;水资源;供需平衡;政策;北京市
基金项目(Foundation): 973项目(2005CB724205);; 北京市重点调研课题
作者(Authors): 范英英;刘永;郭怀成;
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