翟越;杜菁;高甲艳;

• 1:长安大学地质工程与测绘学院
• 2:陕西省天然气股份有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为了更合理地对建筑施工高处作业进行综合风险分析，提出了一种基于改进贝叶斯理论的风险评价方法。在基本贝叶斯理论的基础上，利用动态赋权修正原始计算权重，用评价指标的实际“分值距离”取代原始加权距离，并引入“得分均衡度”。以西北某建筑施工高处作业项目为案例进行风险评价，结果表明，该方法能较为准确地得出风险因素和施工风险变化趋势，指标间具有耦合作用。与传统方法相比，该方法改进了处于临界状态下风险等级划分的问题，实现了贝叶斯模型权重的动态更新，使指标权重更加准确、合理，且改进后的方法不仅可以计算出某个时间阶段的风险值，还可以对项目不同时间阶段的安全风险进行对比，解决了风险评价不准确的问题。

关键词(KeyWords)： 安全工程;建筑施工;综合风险评价;高处作业;改进贝叶斯网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(41941019);; 陕西省科技计划项目创新能力支撑计划项目(2021TD-55)

作者(Authors): 翟越;杜菁;高甲艳;

DOI: 10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.1686

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