安全与环境学报

为应对我国煤矿行业在“双碳”目标和能源保供双重压力下的安全转型问题，本文根据2010—2024年宏观经济数据以及省级面板数据，从生产要素转变的角度来分析煤矿事故的时空演化特征及其产生的原因。通过对事故数据的描述性统计分析发现煤矿事故总量整体呈下降趋势，区域重心从东部和南部向西部和北部转移，致因结构由原来的以自然因素为主转变为人机系统耦合风险为主。进一步采用双向固定效应模型来实证检验劳动力、资本、技术等要素对于安全绩效的净影响。得出的主要结论如下：（1）高强度的劳动要素投入和产能扩张会加大事故风险，就业人员(t = 5.436，P< 0.01) 和规模以上企业产量(t = 3.520，P< 0.01 )的回归系数都显著为正；（2）技术的进步、资本的积累可以降低发生事故的风险，随着劳动生产率(t = -2.172，P< 0.05)与行业固定资产投资(t = -1.971，P=0.05)的提升，死亡人数明显减少；（3）人力资本结构的改善起到筛选的作用，较高的男女比例（t = -2.799，P< 0.01）与工资总额（t = -3.334，P< 0.01）两者都会对事故死亡率产生明显的负向影响。研究结果表明，持续推进机械化换人、自动化减人的改革、实行差异化区域监管和优化人力资本配置是提高灾害防治效果的关键策略，能够为煤矿本质安全治理提供理论支持。

To identify the evolution of coal mine accidents and the effects of production-factor changes on safety performance in China during 2010–2024， this paper combines macro statistical data with panel data from 23 major coal-producing provinces and examines the coordinated changes in labor， capital， and technology. First， descriptive statistical analysis is used to examine accident numbers， fatalities， fatality rate per million tons， spatial distribution， and accident-type structure， so as to reveal the overall trend， regional shift， and type evolution of coal mine accidents. Then， a two-way fixed effects model is employed to estimate the net effects of output from large-scale enterprises， employment， labor productivity， male-to-female employment ratio， total wages， average wages， and fixed-asset investment on the number of fatalities. The results show that the total number of accidents， fatalities， and fatality rate per million tons all declined markedly over the study period， although low-level fluctuations reappeared after the trough in 2021. High-risk areas shifted from eastern and southern regions toward the main coal-producing regions in western and northern China， and the dominant accident pattern changed from traditional hazards such as gas and blasting accidents to roof， transport， and electromechanical accidents characterized by stronger human-machine coupling. The regression results indicate that employment (t = 5.436， P< 0.01) and output from large-scale enterprises (t = 3.520， P< 0.01) significantly increase fatality risk. In contrast， labor productivity (t = -2.172， P< 0.05)， fixed-asset investment (t = -1.971， P= 0.05)， male-to-female employment ratio (t = -2.799， P< 0.01)， and total wages (t = -3.334， P< 0.01) significantly reduce the number of fatalities， whereas the effect of average wages is not statistically significant. These results indicate that coal mine safety risk is increasingly manifested as a coupled human-machine-environment-management risk under high-intensity production. Future governance should therefore focus on the main production regions， old mining areas， and the rising shares of roof， transport， and electromechanical accidents， while promoting coordinated optimization of labor， capital， and technology.