| 4,526 | 43 | 310 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
为了分析能源消费结构转型的碳减排效应、驱动因素及探索能源结构转型的碳达峰实现路径，基于中国能源消费数据，利用清单算法估算中国2001—2022年能源消费结构转型的碳减排效应，并借助岭回归分析中国能源消费结构转型的驱动因素，进而数学论证能源消费碳达峰的实现条件。结果显示：中国能源消费碳排放由期初的10.12亿t增至期末的30.76亿t,其碳排放增速分3阶段逐步减缓，分别对应能源结构高碳化减缓阶段、低碳化不稳定阶段、逐年低碳化阶段；期间能源综合碳排放系数下降了0.082 tC/tce,能源结构转型产生的碳减排效应达31.05亿t且逐年碳减排效应增加趋势明显；能源结构转型受经济规模、能源效率、科技投入、环境规制的正向驱动影响，其中科技投入与环境规制的交互作用强于单因素，碳排放强度对能源结构转型具有负向阻碍影响；地方相关部门应增加对能源结构转型有正向驱动影响因素的投入以促进能源结构转型，加快构建以能源结构转型为核心的能源消费碳达峰实现路径。研究成果为推动能源结构转型及碳减排效应核算和实现能源消费碳达峰提供了理论指导和实践借鉴。
Abstract：This paper analyzes the carbon reduction effects and driving factors associated with the transformation of China's energy consumption structure. Utilizing China's energy consumption data from 2001 to 2022 and employing inventory algorithms, we estimate the carbon reduction impact of this transformation. Additionally, we use ridge regression to examine the driving factors behind the changes in energy consumption structure and mathematically demonstrate the conditions necessary for achieving a peak in carbon emissions related to energy consumption. The findings of this paper reveal that China's carbon emissions from energy consumption rose from 1.012 billion tons at the beginning of the period to 3.076 billion tons by the end. This growth occurred in three distinct phases, characterized by a gradual slowdown in the rate of emissions increase: the high-carbon mitigation stage of energy structure, the low-carbon unstable stage, and the year-on-year low-carbon stage. Secondly, over the 22-year period, the comprehensive carbon emission coefficient of energy decreased from 0.651 tC/tce to 0.569 tC/tce, indicating a gradual transformation toward a low-carbon energy consumption structure. This shift resulted in a total carbon emissions reduction of approximately 3.105 billion tons attributable to changes in the energy structure. Thirdly, the transformation of the energy structure is positively influenced by factors such as economic scale, energy efficiency, technological investment, and environmental regulations. Notably, the interaction between technological investment and environmental regulation has a more pronounced effect than any single factor alone. Additionally, carbon emission intensity negatively impacts the transformation of the energy structure. The government should prioritize increasing the implementation of factors that have a positive impact on driving energy structure transformation. This will help expedite the development of an effective mechanism to achieve the carbon peak in energy production, with a focus on energy structure transformation. The research findings provide valuable theoretical guidance and practical references for promoting energy structure transformation and quantifying its impact on carbon emission reduction. Moreover, these findings contribute to the efforts towards achieving the energy carbon peak.
[1] International Energy Agency (IEA).World energy outlook 2022[M].Pairs,France:OECD Publishing,2022.
[2] YU S W,ZHENG S H,LI X.The achievement of the carbon emissions peak in China:the role of energy consumption structure optimization[J].Energy Economics,2018,74:693-707.
[3] 张丽峰.我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境，2011,25(5) :1-7.ZHANG L F.Relations among the industry structure,energy structure and carbon emissions[J].Resources and Environment in Arid Areas,2011,25(5):1-7.
[4] 李乔楚，陈军华.集成系统动力学和清单算法的能源结构调整对碳排放影响研究：以四川省为例[J].安全与环境学报，2024,24(4):1614-1622.LI Q C,CHEN J H.Research on the impact of energy structure adjustment on carbon emissions based on system dynamics and inventory accounting method:a case study of Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2024,24(4):1614-1622.
[5] 黄光球，刘富垒.陕西省能源消费结构对碳排放强度的作用机理研究[J].生态经济，2019,35(5):36-41.HUANG G Q,LIU F L.Study on the mechanism of the effect of energy consumption structure on carbon intensity in Shaanxi province[J].Ecological Economy,2019,35(5):36-41.
[6] 雷贵祥.基于能源结构调整的省级区域碳排放预测研究[J].能源与节能，2023(5):43-46.LEI G X.Carbon emission prediction of provincial regions based on energy structure adjustment[J].Energy and Energy Conservation,2023(5):43-46.
[7] 陈涛，李晓阳，陈斌.中国碳排放影响因素分解及峰值预测研究[J].安全与环境学报，2024,24(1):396-406.CHEN T,LI X Y,CHEN B.Decomposition of influencing factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in china[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2024,24(1):396-406.
[8] 王倩倩，娄媛媛，张鹏岩，等.能源消费背景下河南省碳排放测算及碳达峰预测[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2023,53(1):47-59.WANG Q Q,LOU Y Y,ZHANG P Y,et al.Under the background of energy consumption carbon emission calculation and carbon peak prediction in Henan province[J].Journal of Henan University (Natural Science Edition),2023,53(1):47-59.
[9] 陈恒蕤，周恒左，孔祥如，等.基于能源结构的甘肃省CO2排放现状及碳达峰情景研究[J].环境保护科学，2023,49(3):81-88.CHEN H R,ZHOU H Z,KONG X R,et al.The status quo of CO2 emissions and carbon peaking scenarios in Gansu Province based on energy structure[J].Environmental Protection Science,2023,49(3):81-88.
[10] 刘晓龙，崔磊磊，李彬，等.碳中和目标下中国能源高质量发展路径研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2021,23(3):1-8.LIU X L,CUI L L,LI B,et al.Research on the high-quality development path of China's energy under the goal of carbon neutrality[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Science Edition),2021,23(3):1-8.
[11] 刘璟雯.产业结构优化对能源转型影响的实证研究[D].沈阳：辽宁大学，2023 .LIU J W.An empirical study on the impact of industrial structure optimization on energy transition[D].Shenyang:Liaoning University,2023.
[12] 韩文艳，杨娜，熊永兰.科技大国能源消费结构演变及影响因素研究[J].科技管理研究，2023,43(1):199-205.HAN W Y,YANG N,XIONG Y L.A study on the evolution and influencing factors of energy consumption structure in major scientific and technological power[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2023,43(1):199-205.
[13] 胡昊，刘玉.数字经济对能源消费结构的影响研究[J].煤炭经济研究，2022,42(11):26-32.HU H,LIU Y.Research on the impact of digital economy on energy consumption structure[J].Study on Coal Economy,2022,42(11):26-32.
[14] 柳亚琴，孙薇，朱治双.碳市场对能源结构低碳转型的影响及作用路径[J].中国环境科学，2022,42(9):4369-4379.LIU Y Q,SUN W,ZHU Z S.The impact of carbon market on the low-carbon transition of energy mix and its action path[J].China Environmental Science,2022,42(9):4369-4379.
[15] WANG H,JIANG L L,DUAN H J,et al.The impact of green finance development on China's energy structure optimization[J].Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society,2021,2021:1-12.
[16] HUANG S Z.The effect of natural resources and economic factors on energy transition:new evidence from China[J].Resources Policy,2022,76:102620.
[17] 赵凡，许佩.长江经济带能源消费碳排放强度时空演变及影响因素[J].长江流域资源与环境，2023,32(11):2225-2236.ZHAO F,XU P.Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J].Resources and environment in the Yangtze River Basin,2023,32(11):2225-2236.
[18] YANG Z B,SHAO S A,YANG L L,et al.Improvement pathway of energy consumption structure in China's industrial sector:from the perspective of directed technical change[J].Energy Economics,2018,72:166-176.
[19] 方行明，何春丽，张蓓.世界能源演进路径与中国能源结构的转型[J].政治经济学评论，2019,10(2):178-201.FANG X M,HE C L,ZHANG B.World energy evolution path and the transformation of China's energy structure[J].Political Economics Review,2019,10(2):178-201.
[20] MAHMOOD N,ZHAO Y J,LOU Q Q,et al.Role of environmental regulations and eco-innovation in energy structure transition for green growth:Evidence from OECD[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2022,183:121890.
[21] HUANG L Y,ZOU Y J.How to promote energy transition in China:from the perspectives of interregional relocation and environmental regulation[J].Energy Economics,2020,92:104996.
[22] YANG H,PENG C,YANG X N,et al.Does change of industrial structure affect energy consumption structure:a study based on the perspective of energy grade calculation[J].Energy Exploration & Exploitation,2019,37(1):579-592.
[23] 王成军，杜传甲.基于冗余分析的陕西省能源消费结构影响因素研究[J].生态经济，2019,35(11):79-83.WANG C J,DU C J.The effect factors of Shaanxi province's energy consumption structure based on redundancy analysis[J].Ecological Economy,2019,35(11):79-83.
[24] SHAHBAZ M,WANG J D,DONG K Y,et al.The impact of digital economy on energy transition across the globe:the mediating role of government governance[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2022,166:112620.
[25] 赵婷婷，许梦博，秦琳贵.绿色金融对能源消费结构的影响研究[J].技术经济与管理研究，2023(11):55-59.ZHAO T T,XU M B,QIN L G.Research on the impact of green finance on energy consumption structure[J].Technical Economy and Management Research,2023(11):55-59.
[26] 鲁贺玉，吴宗法.用能权政策与能源消费结构低碳化转型的关系[J].资源科学，2023,45(6):1181-1195.LU H Y,WU Z F.Relationship between energy policy and low-carbon transformation of energy consumption structure[J].Resource Science,2023,45(6):1181-1195.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2024.0074
中图分类号:X322;F426.2
引用信息:
[1]金都,刘新平.中国能源结构转型：碳减排效应、驱动因素及碳达峰探索[J].安全与环境学报,2024,24(12):4908-4916.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2024.0074.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(71663051); 新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJ2023G136)
2024-10-09
2024-10-09
2024-10-09