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探究郑州都市圈城市安全韧性与高质量发展的耦合协调机理，既是应对极端气候变化下城市复合灾害风险演化的现实需求，更是化解区域安全发展系统性矛盾的关键。以郑州都市圈9座城市为研究对象，基于演化韧性理论，综合运用熵权与逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)、耦合协调度模型，分析2010—2023年郑州都市圈城市安全韧性和高质量发展的时空演化特征，并刻画两系统之间的耦合协调关系；借助极限梯度提升(eXtreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost)决策树和夏普利加性解释(SHapley Additive exPlanations, SHAP)模型探寻两者耦合协调的驱动机理。结果表明：(1)2010—2023年，郑州都市圈城市安全韧性水平和高质量发展水平总体呈上升发展态势，但郑州都市圈城市内部结构非均衡性明显，从空间分布上看，均呈现“以郑州市为核心，外延式扩张”的空间分布格局；(2)研究期内，郑州都市圈城市安全韧性和高质量发展的耦合协调水平呈上升趋势，且耦合协调水平差异不断缩小，耦合协调类型经历了濒临失调、勉强协调、初级协调、中级协调、良性协调和高级协调六个发展阶段，从空间分布看，呈现“核心-边缘”特征，形成“以郑州市为核心，向四周辐射”的发展态势；(3)郑州都市圈城市安全韧性与高质量发展耦合协调遵循“信息-物理-社会-生态”驱动机理。为此，提出重塑三元空间发展格局、推动生态效能系统升级、优化区域协同机制的发展策略，为提升郑州都市圈城市安全韧性与高质量协调发展提供理论支撑。
Abstract：Focusing on the nine cities within the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle, this study employs evolutionary resilience theory to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of urban safety resilience and high-quality development from 2010 to 2023. Methodologically, it integrates the entropy-weighted technique with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) method and a coupling coordination degree model to characterize the interdependencies between these two systems. eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) models further identify the driving mechanisms behind their coupling coordination degree. The research findings reveal that:(1) From 2010 to 2023, the levels of safety resilience and high-quality development in the cities of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle have generally increased, although the internal structure remains notably unbalanced. Phased analysis indicates that urban safety resilience underwent an initial development phase from 2010 to 2015, followed by a rapid development phase from 2016 to 2020, and has since entered a period of steady growth post-2020. In contrast, high-quality urban development experienced rapid advancement from 2010 to 2013, a transformative phase from 2014 to 2018, and has been in a collaborative enhancement phase since 2018. Spatially, the distribution pattern can be characterized as “centered on Zhengzhou City and expanding outward”. Regions with medium-to-high resilience levels show a northwest-to-southeast distribution, while those with medium-to-high levels of high-quality development follow a similar pattern.(2) Throughout the study period, the coupled coordination level of urban safety resilience and high-quality development in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle has demonstrated an increasing trend, with a narrowing gap in the levels of coordination. The types of coupled coordination have progressed through six developmental stages: near-disorder, barely coordinated, primary coordination, intermediate coordination, benign coordination, and advanced coordination. From a spatial distribution perspective, the coupling and coordination between urban safety resilience and high-quality development generally exhibit a ‘core-periphery' structural pattern, fostering a development trajectory centered on Zhengzhou City with outward radiation. Significant disparities exist among the cities regarding the levels of coupling and coordination.(3) The coupling and coordination level of urban safety resilience and high-quality development in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle is driven by an “information-physical-social-ecological” mechanism. Consequently, a development strategy is proposed to reshape the ternary spatial development pattern, enhance the upgrading of the ecological efficiency system, and optimize regional synergy mechanisms. This approach aims to provide theoretical support for improving urban safety resilience and promoting coordinated high-quality development within the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Circle.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1465
中图分类号:TU984.116;X4;F299.27
引用信息:
[1]李冲,齐际龙,程书波.基于XGBoost-SHAP的城市安全韧性与高质量发展耦合协调及影响因素——以郑州都市圈为例[J].安全与环境学报,2026,26(07):2750-2761.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1465.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目(23ZDA117,20BJY043)
2026-05-11
2026-05-11
2026-05-11