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为准确评估社区应急能力，解决现有指标体系不统一、构成要素不明确及单一评估方法存在模糊性和随机性的问题，引入霍尔三维模型构建社区应急能力指标体系，并选用组合赋权-云模型方法进行评估应用。首先，结合前人文献和法律法规初步确定备选评估指标集，再综合20位专家意见及10个社区调研结果，优化并确定社区应急能力指标体系；其次，基于熵权法和G1法主客观相结合计算指标权重，并构建社区应急能力评估云模型；最后，应用该模型对云南省3个社区应急能力进行评估并与其他评估模型进行比较。结果表明：该指标体系能全面反映社区应急能力现状，其中，应急管理能力、应急处置能力和应急保障能力等是重要构成要素；所构建的评估模型能准确评估社区应急能力，可进一步进行推广和应用。
Abstract：To solve the problem that the existing community emergency response capability evaluation index system is not uniform, the constituent elements are not clear, and the single evaluation method has ambiguity and randomness, this paper introduces a system engineering method—Hall with a three-dimensional structure as an analysis tool for the first time. From the three perspectives of the time dimension, logic dimension, and knowledge dimension, the model of community emergency response capability evaluation index system is constructed, and then a combination weighting-cloud model is selected as the evaluation method to evaluate the three communities. Firstly, this paper analyzes the relevant description information of community emergency response capability in national laws and regulations, industry standards, engineering practice, and previous literature, and preliminarily determines the alternative evaluation index set. Then, combined with 20 expert consultation opinions and 10 community research results, the index system of community emergency response capability is optimized, improved, and determined. Secondly, considering the accuracy of the weight coefficient, the correlation between the indexes, and the fuzzy randomness of the evaluation process, the entropy weight method and the G1 method are used to calculate the index weight, and the cloud model of community emergency capability evaluation is constructed. Finally, this model is applied to evaluate a certain urban community, a certain urban-rural integration community, and a certain rural community in Yunnan Province. To further verify the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results of community emergency response capacity by this method, the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Back Propagation(BP) neural network method, and grey clustering method are used to evaluate and compare these three communities. The results show that the index system can fully reflect the current situation of community emergency response capacity, and emergency management capacity. Emergency response capacity and emergency support capacity are important components. The constructed evaluation model can accurately evaluate the community emergency response capability, which can be further promoted and applied.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.2073
中图分类号:D669.3;D63
引用信息:
[1]刘杰,胡欣月,杨溢,等.云南省社区应急能力指标体系构建及评估应用[J].安全与环境学报,2023,23(04):1209-1218.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2021.2073.
基金信息:
云南省重点研发计划项目(202003AC100002); 云南省政府口省级部门决策咨询研究课题(ZFKKT-2020-083); 云南财经大学引进人才项目(2021D04)
2022-02-08
2022-02-08
2022-02-08