| 2,554 | 77 | 188 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
针对装配式建筑吊装施工期间风险影响因素多、不确定性高及风险状态随时间动态变化等问题，提出基于动态贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险动态分析方法。首先，根据装配式建筑吊装施工特点和事故致因理论，从“人、物、环、管”4个方面建立风险指标体系。其次，引入时间维度建立动态贝叶斯网络模型，利用模糊理论和专家打分法量化网络节点的概率，并结合Leaky Noisy-or Gate扩展模型修正条件概率。最后，利用动态贝叶斯网络的双向推理功能对装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险进行动态风险分析。由实例分析得到某装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险的时序变化曲线，通过反向推理得到导致吊装事故发生的关键风险因素。研究成果可为分析和有效控制装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险提供新思路。
Abstract：To address the issues of multiple risk factors, high uncertainty, and dynamic changes in risk state during the construction of prefabricated building hoisting, a dynamic analysis method for safety risk during prefabricated building hoisting construction based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks is proposed. Firstly, according to the construction characteristics of prefabricated building hoisting and accident cause theory, 15 safety risk analysis indexes of hoisting are proposed from four aspects: human, material, environment, and management. The safety risk index system of hoisting construction of a prefabricated building is constructed. Then, the time dimension is introduced to establish a Dynamic Bayesian Network model, the probability of network nodes is quantified by fuzzy theory and expert scoring method, and the conditional probability is modified by combining the Leaky Noisy-or Gate extended model. Finally, the bidirectional inference function of the dynamic Bayesian network is used to analyze the dynamic risk of the safety risk of the hoisting of the prefabricated building. The time series change curve of safety risk in hoisting construction of a certain prefabricated building is obtained by case analysis, and the key risk factors leading to hoisting accidents are obtained by reverse reasoning. The results show that the probability of a lifting accident occurring at the initial moment is 0.313, and the probability of hoisting risk occurring increases significantly with the increase of construction time. Through the comparison of the posterior probability, it is found that the assembly building hoisting mainly has a greater risk in 2 aspects: human and material. The hoisting safety supervisory staff configuration, on-site construction safety management level, prefabricated components quality level, and lifting equipment operation condition are the key factors leading to the occurrence of hoisting construction safety risk. The research results can provide a new way to analyze and effectively control the safety risk of prefabricated building hoisting construction.
[1] 国务院办公厅.国务院办公厅关于大力发展装配式建筑的指导意见[J].建筑设计管理，2016,33(11):40-42.General Office of the State Council.Guiding opinions of the General Office of the State Council on vigorously developing prefabricated buildings[J].Building Design Management,2016,33(11):40-42.
[2] FORTEZA F J,SESé A,CARRETERO-GóMEZ J M.CONSRAT.Construction sites risk assessment tool[J].Safety Science,2016,89:338-354.
[3] LU Y,ZHU Y Q.Integrating hoisting efficiency into construction site layout plan model for prefabricated construction[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2021,147(10):04021130.
[4] LIU Z S,MENG X T,XING Z Z,et al.Digital twin-based safety risk coupling of prefabricated building hoisting[J].Sensors,2021,21(11):3583.
[5] 申玲，唐晔文，牟月.基于Cloud-BN的装配式住宅构件吊装安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报，2019,29(10):147-153.SHEN L,TANG Y W,MOU Y.Safety assessment of component hoisting for prefabricated residence based on Cloud-BN model[J].Chinese Journal of Safety Science,2019,29(10):147-153.
[6] 刘名强，李英攀，王芳，等.基于RVM的装配式建筑吊装作业安全预警模型[J].中国安全科学学报，2018,28(4):109-114.LIU M Q,LI Y P,WANG F,et al.An RVM based safety early warning model for hoisting operation in fabricated building project[J].Chinese Journal of Safety Science,2018,28(4):109-114.
[7] 姜吉坤，刘紫君，顾志恒，等.基于变权物元可拓模型的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价[J/OL].武汉大学学报(工学版):1-13[2023-06-30].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1675.T.20220920.1353.002.html.JIANG J K,LIU Z J,GU Z H,et al.Safety risk assessment of hoisting construction of prefabricated buildings based on matter-element extension model with variable weight[J/OL].Journal of Wuhan University (Engineering Edition):1-13[2023-06-30].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1675.T.20220920.1353.002.html.
[8] 李文龙，李慧民，裴兴旺，等.基于结构熵权-可信性测度理论的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评估[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2020,53(5):410-417.LI W L,LI H M,PEI X W,et al.Safety risk assessment of prefabricated building hoisting construction based on structure entropy weight-credibility measure theory[J].Journal of Wuhan University (Engineering Edition),2020,53(5):410-417.
[9] 李皓燃，李启明，陆莹.基于SEM的装配式建筑施工安全关键风险分析[J].中国安全科学学报，2019,29(4):171-176.LI H R,LI Q M,LU Y.Analysis of key safety risks in prefabricated building construction based on structural equation model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2019,29(4):171-176.
[10] 王志强，张樵民，王国强，等.基于FTA-SPA-灰色聚类的装配式建筑施工安全测评[J].安全与环境工程，2018,25(2):166-173.WANG Z Q,ZHANG Q M,WANG G Q,et al.Safety evaluation of prefabricated building construction based on fta-spa-grey clustering[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2018,25(2):166-173.
[11] 李英攀，刘名强，王芳，等.装配式建筑项目安全绩效云模型评价方法[J].中国安全科学学报，2017,27(6):115-120.LI Y P,LIU M Q,WANG F,et al.Safety performance assessment of fabricated building project based on cloud model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(6):115-20.
[12] PEARL J.Bayesian Networks:a model of self-activated memory for evidential reasoning[C]//Proceedings of the 7th Conference of the Cognitive Science Society,August 15-11,1985,Irvine,CA,USA.Cham:Springer,1985:329-334.
[13] 徐一旻，田梦莹，李治，等.FTA-BN在机场跑道入侵事故影响因素分析中的应用[J].安全与环境学报，2023,23(5):1361-1367.XU Y M,TIAN M Y,LI Z,et al.Analysis of influencing factors of airport runway incursion accident based on FTA-BN[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2023,23(5):1361-1367.
[14] 陈芳，向千秋，陈茜.基于模糊DEMATEL-BN的管制单位动态风险评估[J].安全与环境学报，2023,23(1):35-43.CHEN F,XIANG Q Q,CHEN Q.Dynamic risk evaluation of Air Traffic Control (ATC) based on fuzzy DEMATEL-BN[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2023,23(1):35-43.
[15] 卢鑫月，许成顺，侯本伟，等.基于动态贝叶斯网络的地铁隧道施工风险评估[J].岩土工程学报，2022,44(3):492-501.LU X Y,XU C S,HOU B W,et al.Risk assessment of metro construction based on Dynamic Bayesian Network[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2022,44(3):492-501.
[16] CAI B P,LIU H L,XIE M.A real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems using object-oriented Bayesian Networks[J].Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2016,80:31-44.
[17] HENRION M.Some practical issues in constructing belief networks[C]//Proceedings of the Third Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence,July 10-12,1987,Seattle,WA,USA.Seattle:Association for Uncertainty in Artifical Intelligence,1987:132-139.
[18] ZADEH L A.Fuzzy sets[J].Information & Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[19] ABBASBANDY S,HAJJARI T.Weighted trapezoidal approximation-preserving cores of a fuzzy number[J].Computers and Mathematics with Applications,2010,59(9):3066-3077.
[20] 王军武，陆超.关联性视角下装配式建筑工程吊装事故致因机理分析[J].安全与环境学报，2021,21(3):1158-1164.WANG J W,LU C.On the cause-result consequence of the hoisting accidents in the prefabricated construction projects from the perspective of relevance[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2021,21(3):1158-1164.
[21] 田学泽，胡庆国，何忠明.基于改进组合赋权-动态模糊理论的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报，2021,38(3):187-193.TIAN X Z,HU Q G,HE Z M.Safety risk assessment of hoisting construction of prefabricated buildings based on improved combined weighting-dynamic fuzzzy theory[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2021,38(3):187-193.
[22] 李强年，王乔乔.基于NB-IoT技术的装配式建筑吊装安全风险管理[J].工程管理学报，2020,34(6):113-118.LI Q N,WANG Q Q.Safety risk management for hoisting construction of prefabricated buildings based on NB-IoT technology[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2020,34(6):113-118.
[23] 杨元元，赵延龙.基于组合赋权二维云模型的装配式建筑构件吊装施工安全风险评价[J].自然灾害学报，2022,31(3):167-174.YANG Y Y,ZHAO Y L.Safety risk assessment of assembly building component hoisting based on combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2022,31(3):167-174.
[24] 王军武，潘子瑶，王靖，等.基于STPA和模糊BN的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学术，2022,18(4):12-19.WANG J W,PAN Z Y,WANG J,et al.Safety risk analysis on hoisting construction of prefabricated building based on STPA and fuzzy BN[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2022,18(4):12-19.
[25] 方前程，李中原.基于盲数理论和物元可拓法的装配式建筑吊装施工风险评估模型研究[J].安全与环境学报，2023,23(1):8-16.FANG Q C,LI Z Y.Research on risk assessment model of prefabricated building hoisting construction based on game theory and extension theory[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2023,23(1):8-16.
[26] 孟祥坤，陈国明，朱高庚，等.基于DEMATEL-BN的海洋平台泄漏脆弱性动态分析[J].中国安全科学学报，2018,28(5):111-116.MENG X K,CHEN G M,ZHU G G,et al.DEMATEL-BN based dynamic analysis of vulnerability of offshore platforms to leakage[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(5):111-116.
[27] LI M,WANG H,WANG D,et al.Risk assessment of gas explosion in coal mines based on fuzzy AHP and Bayesian Network[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2020,135:207-218.
[28] 阎石，王世哲，金春福，等.新管幕构件横向锚固力学特性试验[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(自然科学版),2016,32(5):778-787.YAN S,WANG S Z,JIN C F,et al.Experimental study on mechanical characteristics of horizontal anchor in new tubular roof method[J].Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University (Natural Science),2016,32(5):778-787.
[29] ALIABADI M M,POURHASAN A,MOHAMMADFAM I.Risk modelling of a hydrogen gasholder using Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN)[J].International Journal of Hydrogen Energy,2020,45(1):1177-1186.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2023.0818
中图分类号:TP181;TU741;TU714
引用信息:
[1]杨文安,李佳欣.基于动态贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2024,24(04):1328-1336.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2023.0818.
基金信息:
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ30744)
2023-08-04
2023-08-04
2023-08-04