安全与环境学报

为克服单一赋权法的局限性,结合山区干线公路交通特征及交通安全评价指标的选取原则,从社会因素、驾驶因素、环境因素、管理因素和道路因素五个维度出发,选取18个综合评价指标,运用序关系分析法(Order Relation Analysis Method,G1)-指标相关性权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)确定各评价指标的权重,并结合折中妥协多属性决策法(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje,VIKOR)对山区干线公路交通安全进行综合评价,提出了基于G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的山区干线公路交通安全综合评价及比选方法。以中国西部6条山区干线公路为例进行实证研究,结果表明,G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的评价效果与传统的秩和比(Rank-Sum Ratio,RSR)综合评价法及加权逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的评价结果基本一致,且评价效果明显优于后者,具有更好的辨识性,验证了该模型的可行性和科学性。

In assessing traffic safety on mountainous trunk highways,traditional single weighting methods often fall short,failing to adequately represent the complexities of the traffic safety landscape.To overcome this limitation,the current study examines the unique traffic characteristics inherent to mountainous roads and implements a robust selection criterion for safety evaluation indicators.Eighteen representative indicators were identified across five dimensions:social,driver,environmental,management,and roadway factors.The social dimension includes metrics such as average daily traffic,the proportion of large vehicles,and overloading rates.The driver dimension encompasses critical factors such as rates of drunk driving,fatigue-related driving incidents,and speeding.The environmental dimension takes into account factors such as the proportion of adverse weather conditions and the frequency of roads that pass through villages.The management dimension includes control measures like speed limit signage and rates of guardrail reinforcement,while the roadway dimension examines road surface conditions and slope characteristics.These indicators collectively provide a comprehensive understanding of traffic safety conditions in mountainous trunk highways.To establish the weights of these indicators,the study employs the G1-CRITIC method.The Order Relation Analysis Method(G1) leverages subjective expert judgment,while the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC) method quantitatively determines objective weights based on data characteristics such as volatility and conflict.This integrated weighting system is further refined through a distance function approach,ensuring scientific rigor and rationality in the final weighting scheme.The VIKOR(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) multi-attribute decision-making method is utilized to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and prioritization of the highways.Case studies involving six mountainous trunk highways in western China are analyzed.Initially,raw data is standardized to address dimensional inconsistencies,thereby ensuring fairness and accuracy throughout the evaluation process.The VIKOR analysis indicates that Highway 2 exhibits the highest safety performance,followed by Highways 5,4,6,3,and 1.To further validate the proposed model,a comparative analysis was conducted using traditional methods,including the Rank Sum Ratio(RSR) and weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS).Results show a general consistency among the methods;however,the G1-CRITIC-VIKOR model outperforms the others in differentiating safety levels.The RSR method struggles to identify subtle distinctions,while the weighted TOPSIS method exhibits some bias.In contrast,the G1-CRITIC-VIKOR model provides a more precise and reliable evaluation,making it a superior foundation for traffic safety decision-making on mountainous trunk highways.