安全与环境学报

为了有效识别民航运行系统中的性能变化和传播，降低民航运行风险，研究运用功能共振模型(Functional Resonance Analysis Model, FRAM)对航空器离场程序的任务流程进行了安全分析。通过层次任务分析识别了关于航空器离场程序的20个功能模块，并在描述各功能模块的基础上构建了功能网络图。将盲数理论应用到航空器离场程序风险评估中，有效弥补了由于历史数据不足而产生的主观性偏差，通过风险耦合公式实现了对上下游功能交互的量化，并识别了易发生变化的关键功能及路径，进而制定了性能变化的控制措施。结果显示，在航空器离场过程中申请起飞F₁₄等7个功能的可变性较大，存在地面滑行F₁₂-申请起飞F₁₄-起飞许可F₁₇-起飞操作F₁₈-升空F₁₉-管制移交(塔台到进近)F₂₀等3个关键路径。

To effectively identify and manage performance changes and propagation within the civil aviation operation system, this paper employs the functional resonance model to analyze the task flow involved in aircraft departure procedures. Utilizing the hierarchical task analysis method, we decompose the task flow based on the organization of the air transport system and the interactions among different entities. A total of 20 functional modules have been identified, including cockpit preparation(F₁), ATC clearance(F₂), push back request(F₃), push back permit(F₄), push back(F₅), ground traction(F₆), startup request(F₇), and startup permit(F₈), among others. It is important to note that this paper employs blind number theory to estimate the probability distribution of the 20 functional modules concerning changes in time and accuracy. This approach mitigates bias introduced by expert subjectivity. Additionally, this paper abstracts the ability of each functional module to return to a normal state when it confronted with internal and/or external perturbations into a resilience factor. This resilience factor is then used to calculate the variability of each functional module. Finally, the functional coupling value is calculated using the risk coupling formula, enabling the quantification of upstream and downstream functional interactions. This approach identifies key functions and paths that are susceptible to change and formulates risk control measures for managing performance variations. The results indicate that seven functional modules-takeoff request(F₁₄), receipt of aircraft(F₁₅), hand over from tower to approach control(F₂₀), hand over from ramp to tower control(F₁₃), takeoff(F₁₈), instructing aircraft to enter the runway(F₁₆), and takeoff permit(F₁₇)-exhibit greater variability during the aircraft departure process.Ground taxiing(F₁₂)-takeoff request(F₁₄)-takeoff permit(F₁₇)-takeoff(F₁₈)-airbone(F₁₉)-hand over from tower to approach control(F₂₀) and other two key paths are identified. When the system encounters disturbance, these functional modules are more likely to resonate with connected function modules, thereby highlighting potential failure nodes and critical paths within the process is valuable for operation analysis.