安全与环境学报

为研究我国道路交通事故特征及致因机理，选取2015—2019年109万起道路交通事故数据，分析成因、形态、时间、肇事人、肇事机动车、伤亡人员6个方面特征规律。确定道路交通事故致因因素，采用决策试验与评价实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)法分析复杂系统关联性，构建道路交通事故致因因素递阶层次结构图，从理论上探究致因机理并得出本质致因因素。我国道路交通事故特征包括：86.29%的事故由机动车违法导致，主因是未按规定让行，违法装载是高危因素，超速行驶事故多且危害大；70.21%的事故是多车事故，侧面碰撞是主要事故形态，坠车和翻滚是高危事故形态；17:00—19:59是事故多发时段；生产经营车辆引发的事故危害大；行人更易受到致命伤害，男性因事故伤亡的概率高于女性；77.38%的事故致命原因为颅脑损伤；3.63%的肇事机动车存在机械故障。致因机理分析结果表明，超速行驶、超载运输、技术不足或标准法规滞后是致因机理中的本质因素，可作为改善事故风险的关键点。

To study the characteristics and mechanism of road traffic accidents, the cause, form, time, perpetrator, motor vehicle, casualties, and other characteristics were analyzed based on the data of 1.09 million road traffic accidents in 2015-2019, and then causative factors of road traffic accidents were abstracted. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the correlation of complex system, and the influence degree, affected degree, cause degree, and center degree of causative factors were calculated to determine the impact of each causative factor on the formation of road traffic accidents. A hierarchical structure diagram of causing factors of road traffic accidents was established. The mechanism and essential causative factors of road traffic accidents were obtained theoretically. Based on the analysis of the characteristics and causes of road traffic accidents, suggestions on road traffic safety management in line with national conditions were proposed. 86.29% of the accidents were caused by motor vehicle violations. Among them, failure to give way according to regulations was the main reason, illegal loading was a high-risk factor, and speeding accidents were frequent and harmful. 70.21% of the accidents were multi-vehicle accidents. Side impact was a high-frequency accident form, and falling and rolling were high-risk accident forms. 17:00-19:59 was the accident-prone period. 3:00-5:59 was the period of high injury accidents. Accidents caused by production and operation vehicles were accompanied by high hazards, among which tourism passenger transport, transport of dangerous chemicals, and general freight transport caused the highest degree of damage. Pedestrians were more vulnerable to fatal injuries and men were more likely to be injured than women in accidents. 77.38% of the fatal causes of accidents were brain injuries. 3.63% of the motor vehicles involved in accidents had mechanical failures, the probability of poor braking was the highest, and the danger of excessive tire wear was the greatest. The analysis results of the mechanism show that speeding, overloaded transportation, insufficient technology or lagging standards and regulations are the essential factors. These factors can be used as key points to reduce accident risk.