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为揭示大型活动公共安全事故致因因素间的复杂作用机制，提出了基于决策试验与评估实验法（Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL）和解释结构模型（Interpretive Structural Modeling，ISM）的事故致因分析方法。首先，通过收集93起国内外大型活动安全事故案例，运用扎根理论并结合德尔菲法专家咨询，构建包含22项事故致因指标的评价体系。其次，采用改进的DEMATEL定量识别关键致因因素，引入K–均值（K–means）聚类算法客观确定阈值。最后，利用ISM构建事故致因因素递阶结构，揭示大型活动公共安全事故的多层级演化路径。研究表明，大型活动公共安全事故由本质致因、过渡致因与近邻致因多层因素共同作用形成。其中，公共安全意识缺乏是根源性因素，控制底层致因因素可有效切断事故演化路径，从源头预防事故发生。研究可为大型活动安全管理提供系统的事故致因分析框架与方法支撑。
Abstract：To reveal the complex interaction mechanisms among causative factors of public safety accidents in large-scale events， this study proposes an accident causation analysis method that integrates an improved Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method with Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). First， 93 accident cases from domestic and international large-scale events were collected and systematically analyzed using grounded theory combined with the Delphi method for expert consultation. This process established an indicator system comprising 22 accident causative indicators across four primary dimensions: human factors， equipment factors， environmental factors， and management factors. Second， the improved DEMATEL method was applied to quantitatively identify key causative factors and their interrelationships. Expert judgment matrices were constructed to assess the direct influence between pairs of factors， which were subsequently normalized to calculate both the influence exerted by each factor on others and the influence received. A comprehensive influence matrix was derived to determine the degree of causation and centrality. To reduce the subjectivity associated with traditional threshold selection， the K–means clustering algorithm was employed to objectively determine the optimal threshold value for constructing the reachability matrix based on the distribution characteristics of comprehensive influence values. Third， based on the optimized reachability matrix， ISM was utilized to construct a multi-level hierarchical structural model of causative factors， revealing the evolutionary pathways and transmission mechanisms underlying accident development in large-scale events. Results indicate that public safety accidents in large-scale events arise from the combined effects of root causes， transitional causes， and proximal causes across multiple hierarchical levels. The evolution of accidents generally follows a stepwise progression from essential root factors through intermediate transmission factors to direct triggering factors. Specifically， a lack of public safety awareness was identified as the fundamental root cause， exerting cascading influences on multiple transitional and proximal factors. Controlling bottom-layer causative factors can effectively interrupt accident evolution pathways and prevent accidents at the source. This study provides a systematic accident causation analysis framework and methodological support for refined safety management practices in large-scale events.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1902
中图分类号:D63;D631.43;X928
引用信息:
[1]张慧,王新猛,杨一涛,等.基于改进DEMATEL–ISM的大型活动公共安全事故致因分析[J].安全与环境学报().DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2025.1902.
基金信息:
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2025SJYB0091）; 教育部中央高校基本科研业务费项目（LGZD202505）; 2025年度江苏省青年科技人才托举工程项目（JSTJ–2025–725）
2026-07-14
2026-07-14
2026-07-14