| 2,215 | 64 | 81 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
为了揭示道路交通事故发生的本质规律,完善预防与治理道路交通事故发生的理论体系,针对全世界交通事故频发、交通安全问题日益突出的现状,以道路交通事故发生机理为研究对象,综述了5种目前国内外典型的道路交通事故发生机理,包括"感知—判断—操作"机理、"流量分布、超速与速度差"机理、"驾驶能力与行车需求"机理、"差错性与突变性"耦合机理、"事件树"机理,并对其进行了评价。基于现状分析,提出了未来道路交通事故发生机理研究的趋势,即探寻道路交通事故影响因素的新颖分类方法,透析道路交通事故影响因素间的耦合关联,寻求导致道路交通事故发生的决定性因素(可量化指标),建立关键决定性因素耦合作用对道路交通安全性影响的系统理论关系模型及定量化研究模型,开展基于人因工程理论的道路交通事故发生机理研究,探索基于事故数据的道路交通事故发生机理研究等。
Abstract：In order to disclose the essential regularities behind the traffic accidents and enhance the theoretical research system for preventing from and reducing the traffic accidents to the minimum point,the present paper aims to make a systematic exploration and summary of traffic accidents based on the study of the frequency of road traffic accidents and the increasingly traffic safety problems both at home and abroad.The research goals of the paper include(1) The study of the mechanism of the incidence of traffic accidents,the judgment and the actual manipulative measures to deal with the likely accidents while driving;(2)The mechanism of the traffic interactive flow distribution,overspeeding and speed deviation;(3) The mechanism of the drivers' competence for the drivers to control the accidents and the actual driving demands of the actual driving tasks;(4) The mechanism of the likeliness between the drivers' misbehaviors and the accidental driving mis-operation caused by the judgment gap due to the road traffic system factors and the drivers' driving intentions;(5) The mechanism of the accident tree,based on the analysis of the problems and inefficiency in the research into the road traffic accidents in situ and in the future in the traffic accident exploration.The future research trends may include(1)Exploring the novel classification methods of the influential indices that may account for such traffic accidents;(2) An depth-analysis in the coupled interactions between the influential factors and the actual rates of road traffic accidents;(3) Seeking the key and decisive factors(quantified indices) that may account for the traffic accidents;(4) Establishing the theoretical relationship models and quantitative models which can reflect the influence of the coupled interactions of the key and decisive factors on road traffic safety;(5) Conducting researches on the mechanisms of the traffic accidents on the basis of ergonomics;(6) Doing researches on the mechanisms of the traffic accidents based on the actual accident data.
[1]ZIYAB A H,AKHTAR S.Incidence and trend of road traffic injuries and related deaths in Kuwait:2000-2009[J].Injury,2012,43(12):2018-2022.
[2]SHARMA B R.Road traffic injuries:a major global public health crisis[J].Public Health,2008,122(12):1399-1406.
[3]LI Shengcai(李生才),XIAO Lei(笑蕾).Statistics of industrial accidents in China during the period from November to December in2012[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2013,13(1):285-288.
[4]WANG Chen(王臣),GAO Junshan(高俊山).Research review on unexpected accident management in China[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2012,12(3):236-242.
[5]ZHOU Qian(周钱),LU Huapu(陆化普),XU Wei(徐薇).Laws and models of traffic accidents[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(交通运输工程学报),2006,6(4):112-115.
[6]FELL J C.A motor vehicle accident causal system:the human element[J].Human Factors:The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society,1976,18(1):85-94.
[7]SUSSMAN E D,BISHOP H,MADNICK B,et al.Driver inattention and highway safety[J].Transportation Research Record,1985,1047:40-48.
[8]KOUSTANA¨I A,BOLOIX E,VAN ELALANDE P,et al.Statistical analysis of“looked-but-failed-to-see”accidents:highlighting the involvement of two distinct mechanisms[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2008,40(2):461-469.
[9]WANG Y H,IEDA H,MANNERING F.Estimating rear-end accident probabilities at signalized intersections:occurrence-mechanism approach[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2003,129(4):377-384.
[10]HABIBOVIC A,DAVIDSSON J.Causation mechanisms in car to vulnerable road user crashes:implications for active safety systems[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,49:493-500.
[11]FU Yinuo(傅以诺),GU Fangping(顾方平).Review on the theory of causing road traffic accidents[J].Road Traffic and Safety(道路交通与安全),2010,10(3):45-46.
[12]GU Fangping(顾方平),FU Yinuo(傅以诺).On dualistic pattern of“emergency&anti-collision”in traffic accident identification[J].Road Traffic and Safety(道路交通与安全),2008,8(2):1-7.
[13]LU Siwen(陆斯文),FANG Shou’en(方守恩),WANG Junhua(王俊骅).Mechanism analysis on conflicts and collisions caused by aggressive pedestrian crossing single lane[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Natural Science(重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版),2009,28(1):108-110.
[14]PEI Yulong(裴玉龙),MA Yanli(马艳丽).Effects of driver fatigue on his sense,judgement and operation behavior[J].Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition(吉林大学学报:工学版),2009,39(5):1151-1156.
[15]MA Yanli(马艳丽),LOU Yanjiang(娄彦江),WANG Yaowu(王要武).Road traffic accidents model and its application based on driver’s self-mistakes[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology(交通运输系统工程与信息),2010,10(4):101-105.
[16]WANG W H,CAO Q,IKEUCHI K,et al.Reliability and safety analysis methodology for identification of drivers’erroneous actions[J].International Journal of Automotive Technology,2010,11(6):873-881.
[17]HISELIUS L W.Estimating the relationship between accident frequency and homogeneous and in homogeneous traffic flows[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2004,36(6):985-992.
[18]IEEE Intelligent Computation Society,Research Association Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation,Hunan University,et al.2010 International Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation,ICICTA 2010,Changsha,China,May 11-12,2010[C].Piscataway:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Computer Society,2010.
[19]PEI Yulong(裴玉龙),CHENG Guozhu(程国柱).Research on the relationship between discrete character of speed and traffic accident and speed management of freeway[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport(中国公路学报),2004,17(1):74-78.
[20]LI Shuqing(李淑庆).Research on the relationship between the speed of road alignment and traffic accident[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(重庆交通学院学报),1993,12(1):71-79.
[21]North American Chinese Overseas Transportation Association,Beijing University of Technology,Transportation and Development Institute of ASCE,et al.Integrated transportation systems:green,intelligent,reliable:Proceedings of the 10th International Conference of Chinese Transportation Professionals,Beijing,China,August 4-8,2010[C].Reston:American Society of Civil Engineers,2010.
[22]FASTENMEIER W,GSTALTER H.Driving task analysis as a tool in traffic safety research and practice[J].Safety Science,2007,45(9):952-979.
[23]OTTE D,J¨ANSCH M,HAASPER C.Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German in-depth accident study GIDAS[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,44(1):149-153.
[24]LARSEN L.Methods of multidisciplinary in-depth analyses of road traffic accidents[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2004,111(1/2/3):115-122.
[25]CHLIAOUTAKIS J E I,DARVIRI C,DEMAKAKOS P T H.The impact of young drivers’lifestyle on their road traffic accident risk in greater Athens area[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,1999,31(6):771-780.
[26]HORWOOD L J,FERGUSSON D M.Drink driving and traffic accidents in young people[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2000,32(6):805-814.
[27]BENER A,BREGER A,AL-FALASI A S.Risk taking behaviour in road traffic accidents[J].Journal of Traffic Medicine,1995,23(2):65-70.
[28]BENER A,AL MAADID M G A,¨OZKAN T,et al.The impact of four-wheel drive on risky driver behaviours and road traffic accidents[J].Transportation Research Part F:Traffic Psychology and Behaviour,2008,11(5):324-333.
[29]HUA Qidi(华启迪),CHEN Songling(陈松灵).Analysis and application study on the mechanism of road traffic accidents[J].Shandong Communication Science and Technology(山东交通科技),2008(1):72-74,83.
[30]Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Peking University,Fudan University,et al.2011 International Conference on Remote Sensing,Environment and Transportation Engineering,RSETE 2011-Proceedings,Nanjing,China,June 24-26,2011[C].Piscataway:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Computer Society,2011.
[31]Chinese Colleges and Universities Association for Computer Education.Proceedings of 2009 4th International Conference on Computer Science and Education,ICCSE 2009,Nanning,China,July 25-28,2009[C].Piscataway:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Computer Society,2009.
[32]WANG W H,JIANG X B,XIA S C,et al.Incident tree model and incident tree analysis method for quantified risk assessment:An in-depth accident study in traffic operation[J].Safety Science,2010,48(10):1248-1262.
[33]GUO Fu(郭伏),SUN Yongli(孙永丽),YE Qiuhong(叶秋红).Comparative analysis on domestic and overseas ergonomics research[J].Industrial Engineering and Management(工业工程与管理),2007,12(6):118-122.
[34]LI Xiuli(李秀丽),JIAO Haixian(焦海贤),HUANG Ting(黄婷),et al.Accident prevention measures based on driving adaptability and ergonomics[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Natural Science(重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版),2008,27(4):622-625.
[35]GUO Xiaoyan(郭晓艳),ZHANG Li(张力).Psychology factors in safety human factor engineering[J].Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection(工业安全与环保),2007,33(10):29-32.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2014.03.004
中图分类号:U491.31
引用信息:
[1]李淑庆,彭囿朗,肖莉英,等.道路交通事故发生机理研究现状与趋势分析[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(03):14-19.DOI:10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2014.03.004.
基金信息:
重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室基金项目(2011CQJY004)
2014-06-25
2014-06-25